The 2008 crash vs the 2022 rate shock: What happened to Florida apartment prices
Both downturns killed sales volume. Florida apartment building sales fell 83% from 2006 to 2009 and 54% from 2021 to 2023. The difference is price. After 2006 the median per unit fell 15% to its 2010 low. After 2022 it rose 10% by 2025. The 2008 crash was a credit and jobs collapse. The 2022 shock was the cost of debt and insurance, with rents still up 49% from 2019 to 2025.
Owners who were around for 2008 ask me if this is the same thing again. Owners who bought in 2021 ask me if it is going to get as bad. Both are fair questions, and Florida's sale records answer them better than any headline. I lined up every arm's-length sale of a Florida apartment building with five or more units from 2003 to 2025, the count and the median price per unit, against the rate data the Federal Reserve publishes.
The two downturns side by side
| 2008 crash | 2022 rate shock | |
|---|---|---|
| Sales count, slide to the low | 1,309 (2006) to 222 (2009), down 83% | 2,035 (2021) to 933 (2023), down 54% |
| Median price per unit | $65,812 (2006) to $55,833 (2010), down 15% | $142,857 (2022) to $157,143 (2025), up 10% |
| 30-year mortgage, yearly avg | 6.41% (2006) to 4.69% (2010), falling | 2.96% (2021) to 6.80% (2023), rising |
| 10-year Treasury, yearly avg | 4.79% to 3.21% | 1.44% to 4.29% (2025) |
| Florida unemployment, yearly avg | 3.3% (2006) to 11.3% (2010) | 3.0% (2022) to 3.4% (2024) |
Rates are FRED's yearly averages of the 30-year mortgage (MORTGAGE30US) and the 10-year Treasury (DGS10). Unemployment is FRED's Florida unemployment rate (FLUR), yearly average.
What both downturns have in common: Volume dies first
Look at the bars. In both cycles, the number of sales fell off a cliff. Sales peaked at 1,780 in 2005, slipped to 1,309 in 2006 and bottomed at 222 in 2009. In this cycle, 2021 was the busiest year on record at 2,035 sales, and by 2023 it was 933. It has stayed under 1,000 a year since: 965 in 2024 and 945 in 2025.
That is how apartment markets adjust. An owner who does not have to sell stops selling when buyers will not pay last year's number. The deals that close are the ones that must. So volume tells you about stress long before price does, and that pattern held in both cycles.
Where they split: Price
In the 2008 cycle, the median price per unit went from $65,812 in 2006 to $55,833 in 2010, down 15%. That is real, but it is smaller than most people remember, because the owners who did not have to sell held on. It took until 2014, at $71,691, for the median to clear its 2006 peak again.
In this cycle, the median did not fall at all statewide. It went from $142,857 in 2022 to $145,500 in 2023, $146,875 in 2024 and $157,143 in 2025, up 10% in three years. After the 2019 to 2022 run, when it rose 57%, that is a plateau, not a crash.
Why 2008 was different: The tenant and the lender both broke
The 2008 crash started in housing credit and spread to jobs. Florida's unemployment rate averaged 3.3% in 2006 and 11.3% in 2010, according to FRED. When that many renters lose work, collections and occupancy come under pressure, and net income follows. At the same time, lenders pulled back hard. Rates actually fell through the crash, with the 30-year mortgage going from 6.41% in 2006 to 4.69% in 2010, but cheap money did not matter when banks would not write the loan.
So in 2008, the income under the building and the financing to buy it were both damaged. Price had to give.
Why 2022 was different: The debt got expensive, the rent did not fall
This time the problem was the cost of debt, not access to it. The 30-year mortgage averaged 2.96% in 2021 and 6.80% in 2023. The 10-year Treasury, which commercial lenders price apartment loans from, went from 1.44% in 2021 to 4.29% in 2025. On top of that, insurance repriced. When I started selling apartment buildings in 2013, insurance ran about $400 a door. Today I underwrite $950 to $1,500.
But tenants kept working and kept paying. Florida unemployment averaged 3.0% in 2022 and 2.9% in 2023. Across the 35 Florida counties Zillow has tracked since 2015, the average rent went from $1,324 a month in 2019 to $1,971 in 2025, up 49% (Zillow's index covers houses too, so treat it as direction). A building's value is its income divided by a cap rate. Higher debt and insurance pushed cap rates and expenses up, but rising rent kept the income line moving the other way. Buyers paid about 5.72 times a year of average county rent per unit in 2019 and 6.64 times in 2025. The price held because the income grew into it. I go deeper on the rate side in what interest rates did to Florida apartment prices.
The statewide number hides real local drops
"Prices rose 10%" is true for Florida. It is not true everywhere. Here is the median price per unit in 2022 and 2025 for counties that fell and a few that did not, with the number of sales behind each median in parentheses:
| County | 2022 (sales) | 2025 (sales) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orange | $224,138 (67) | $195,978 (33) | -13% |
| Hillsborough | $142,262 (56) | $133,125 (58) | -6% |
| Lee | $99,159 (98) | $90,278 (35) | -9% |
| Bay | $118,770 (16) | $104,167 (15) | -12% |
| Brevard | $135,417 (28) | $125,400 (14) | -7% |
| Miami-Dade | $171,875 (365) | $218,992 (247) | +27% |
| Broward | $153,397 (298) | $185,048 (170) | +21% |
| Duval | $97,458 (97) | $106,157 (70) | +9% |
| Polk | $85,000 (65) | $98,396 (36) | +16% |
Orange went from $224,138 in 2022 to $195,978 in 2025, and its sale count fell from 121 in 2021 to 33 in 2025. Lee, where hurricanes and new supply hit at the same time, fell 9%. Hillsborough slipped 6% on a similar number of sales. Bay and Brevard rest on fewer than 30 sales a year, so read them as a direction, not a number. Pinellas and Pasco were lower in 2025 too, but on 4 and 8 sales, too few to quote a median. Meanwhile Miami-Dade and Broward climbed more than 20%.
A median also mixes whatever sold. If a county sold newer buildings in 2022 and older ones in 2025, its median falls even if no single building lost value. That is one reason I price every building from its own income first. Want your county's full year-by-year sales and rents? Open its page from the table and I will email you the report.
What this means for you
If you bought in 2021 or 2022, statewide history says your building is probably not underwater on price alone, but your county and your debt matter more than the state median. I cover that case in Bought in 2021 or 2022? What your building is worth now.
If you have owned since before 2010, you sat through both cycles, and the median per unit is up from $59,900 in 2009 to $157,143 in 2025. Your question is what you keep after the sale, which I walk through in 41% of Florida apartment buildings haven't sold since 2009.
If you are waiting for a crash to buy, the 2008 pattern needed job losses and a lending shutdown. Neither shows up in the numbers above. As of September 2026 the 30-year mortgage averaged 6.86%, the 10-year Treasury was 5.22% on October 8, 2026, and the Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75% to 4% on September 16, 2026. That is pressure on price, not a collapse. Prices can still drift lower county by county, and some already have.
How I built these numbers
Sales and prices are arm's-length sales of Florida parcels the property roll classifies as multifamily with five or more units, from Florida Department of Revenue sale records and county sales files, 2003 through 2025. 2026 is left out because the year is not complete and recording lags. Rates are FRED yearly averages, and rents are the Zillow Observed Rent Index averaged across 35 counties. The full 30-year table is in Florida apartment prices per unit since 1995.
Questions owners ask
Did Florida apartment prices crash in 2008?
Not as much as people think. The Florida median sale price per unit for buildings with five or more units fell 15%, from $65,812 in 2006 to $55,833 in 2010. Sales volume fell much harder, 83%, from 1,309 sales in 2006 to 222 in 2009.
Did Florida apartment prices fall after interest rates went up in 2022?
Not statewide. The median price per unit rose from $142,857 in 2022 to $157,143 in 2025, about 10%. Sales fell 54% from 2021 to 2023 instead. Some counties did drop, including Orange, Lee and Hillsborough.
Why did Florida apartment prices hold up better after 2022 than after 2008?
In 2008, Florida unemployment rose from 3.3% to 11.3% and lenders pulled back hard, so both tenants' paychecks and financing broke. After 2022, debt got more expensive but tenants kept working, and average Florida county rent rose 49% from 2019 to 2025. Rising income held prices up.
Is a 2008-style crash coming for Florida apartments?
Nothing in the numbers says so yet. The 2008 crash needed mass job losses and a lending shutdown. Today the pressure is the cost of debt and insurance. That can push prices lower in some counties, and it already has, but it looks more like a slow reset than a collapse.
I have sold Florida apartment buildings since 2013, and I price every listing to survive a buyer's lender today. If you want to know where your building sits in this cycle, call me. That is the work of a multifamily broker in Florida.